Facilitation · 2-6 hour workshops

Three Horizons Framework

A strategic foresight and systems-thinking model used to navigate the transition from current, unsustainable systems to future, equitable models. It provides a visual language for groups to distinguish between innovations that merely patch the existing system and those that bridge the gap toward a transformative future.

When to use Three Horizons Framework

Effective during strategic planning, systems-change initiatives, and consensus-building sessions where stakeholders have competing priorities or are stuck in reactionary problem-solving.

How Three Horizons Framework works

Facilitators can use this as a collaborative mapping tool. Participants plot current systemic failures on the H1 timeline, define the ideal future state on H3, and then audit current projects (H2) to determine if they are 'H2-' (sustaining the old) or 'H2+' (paving the way for the new).

Phases of Three Horizons Framework

  1. Horizon 1 (H1): The Status Quo: The dominant current system, which works today but shows signs of decline or no longer fits. Participants map what is failing and what is worth keeping.
  2. Horizon 2 (H2): Disruptive Innovation: The transitional space of innovations that either prolong the old system or help bridge to the new. The group sorts innovations into those that capture change for H1 and those that serve H3.
  3. Horizon 3 (H3): The Desired Future: The emerging patterns and visions of a viable future, visible now in small pockets. Participants describe the desired future and look for present examples of it.

Key principles

  • Systems have natural lifecycles of decline and emergence.
  • Innovation is non-neutral; it either captures the status quo or transforms it.
  • Strategic choices can accelerate the transition to a desired future state.
  • The future (H3) is often already present in the form of small-scale 'pockets' of innovation.

Best for

  • Systems Thinking
  • Strategic Foresight
  • Consensus Building
  • Organizational Transformation

Considerations

  • H2- innovations (efficiency gains) can be deceptive because they improve the current system while inadvertently delaying necessary systemic shifts.
  • Requires participants to move past 'band-aid' thinking to address root causes.
  • The model acknowledges that the transition period (H2) is inherently unstable and requires careful management of tension.

Attribution & sources

Developed by Bill Sharpe of the International Futures Forum

Primary source

Design a session with Three Horizons Framework

METODIC builds a complete Three Horizons Framework-based session — methods, timing, worksheets, and facilitator guides — in minutes.

Try METODIC free