Facilitation · Multi-day to multi-week (depending on the number of rounds)

Delphi Method

A structured, iterative communication technique used to gather expert opinions and reach a consensus on complex or speculative topics. By utilizing anonymous responses and controlled feedback loops, it filters out the noise of group dynamics to arrive at a reliable 'group response.'

When to use Delphi Method

Effective for forecasting future trends, defining curriculum learning outcomes, or reaching agreement among stakeholders with diverse or conflicting perspectives.

How Delphi Method works

Facilitators can integrate this by using digital survey tools to collect anonymous input before a session, then presenting the aggregated data during the session to spark focused, data-driven discussion and alignment.

Phases of Delphi Method

  1. Expert Selection and Panel Formation: Choose a panel of people with relevant expertise and a range of perspectives. The facilitator defines the question, invites panelists and explains anonymity and the round structure.
  2. Initial Questionnaire (Round 1): Panelists answer a questionnaire individually and anonymously, often open-ended in the first round. The facilitator collects forecasts, judgments or ideas without any group discussion.
  3. Feedback and Group Response Analysis: The facilitator summarizes responses, for example with medians, ranges and reasons given, and feeds this back to the panel. Individual answers stay anonymous so no one's status steers the group.
  4. Discussion and Answer Revision (Round 2+): Panelists review the group summary and revise their answers, explaining positions that differ from the majority. Rounds repeat until answers stabilize; exchange usually stays written and anonymous.
  5. Consensus Synthesis and Final Reporting: The facilitator reports the final group response, including the level of agreement and remaining dissent. The report covers the reasoning behind the positions, not just the numbers.

Key principles

  • Anonymity of participants to prevent groupthink
  • Iterative rounds of questioning
  • Controlled feedback loops
  • Statistical aggregation of group responses
  • Expert-driven insights

Best for

  • Strategic forecasting
  • Curriculum development
  • Policy consensus building

Considerations

  • Requires careful selection of qualified experts
  • Can be time-intensive due to multiple rounds
  • Potential for participant attrition over time

Attribution & sources

Developed by the RAND Corporation, 1950s

Primary source

Design a session with Delphi Method

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